{"id":2613,"date":"2024-04-14T10:56:52","date_gmt":"2024-04-14T17:56:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wukan.me\/?p=2613"},"modified":"2024-04-14T10:57:30","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T17:57:30","slug":"scientist-signal-and-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wukan.me\/?p=2613","title":{"rendered":"Scientist, Signal, and Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e24\u5468\u542c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u64ad\u5ba2\uff0c\u5370\u8c61\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u8fd8\u662f <a href=\"https:\/\/www.acquired.fm\/episodes\/renaissance-technologies\">Acquired<\/a> \u8fd9\u671f\u82b1\u4e863\u5c0f\u65f6\u804a\u7684\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rentec.com\/Home.action?about=true\">Renaissance Technology<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65d7\u8230\u57fa\u91d1\uff1a\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Medallion Fund\uff09\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u768434\u5e74\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u662f68%\u6bdb\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002\u5f62\u8c61\u4e00\u70b9\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u5982\u679c1988\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4f60\u5f80\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684S&amp;P 500\u6295\u8d44\u4e861000\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u6309\u71679%\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u6295\u8d4434\u5e74\u7684\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u662f$18,728\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u4e00\u5171\u7ffb\u4e8618\u500d\u3002\u540c\u6837\u662f1988\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u4e70\u4e861000\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u82f9\u679c\u80a1\u7968\uff08APPL\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8fde\u7eed\u6301\u670934\u5e74\uff0c\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u4f1a\u662f46\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u4e00\u5171\u7ffb\u4e86460\u500d\u3002\u800c\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u540c\u6837\u57281988\u5e74\u4ed6\u4eec\u57fa\u91d1\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u653e\u8fdb\u53bb1000\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fde\u7eed\u6301\u670934\u5e74\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5141\u8bb8\u88ab\u6301\u6709\u8fd9\u4e48\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u8bdd\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4f1a\u662f465\u300c\u4ebf\u300d\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f68%\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u4e4b\u7f8e\u3002\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u6536\u76ca\u6700\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5f00\u8bbe\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u5e74\u662f\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u3002\u5f88\u53ef\u60dc\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u6210\u7acb\u4e4b\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e1a\u7ee9\u592a\u597d\uff0c\u5c31\u5173\u95ed\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff08LP\uff09\u7684\u6e20\u9053\uff0c\u518d\u8fc7\u4e0d\u4e86\u51e0\u5e74\u4e5f\u628a\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u6709\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u5168\u90e8\u9000\u8fd8\uff0c\u4ece\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u91cc\u9762\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u5168\u90e8\u6765\u81ea\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u6216\u8005\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u524d\u5458\u5de5\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u8fd9\u7bc7\u535a\u5ba2\u5c31\u60f3\u8bb2\u4e00\u8bb2\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u897f\u8499\u65af\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/CTQcLi6SpX8?si=gtqtQOkN-n34ejQd\">James Simons<\/a>\uff09\u7684\u53d1\u5bb6\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"988\" height=\"671\" src=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Graph-Medallion-2015-edited.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2616\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Graph-Medallion-2015-edited.jpg 988w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Graph-Medallion-2015-edited-300x204.jpg 300w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Graph-Medallion-2015-edited-768x522.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u5e74\u6536\u76ca<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u897f\u8499\u65af1938\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u5728\u9a6c\u8428\u8bf8\u585e\u5dde\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u7684\u90ca\u533a\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.niche.com\/k12\/d\/brookline-ma\/\">Brookline<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u5c0f\u5c31\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5bf9\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u548c\u5929\u8d4b\u3002\u5927\u5b66\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff08MIT\uff09\u4e09\u5e74\u5b8c\u6210\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6765\u5230\u897f\u6d77\u5cb8\u7684\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\uff08Berkeley\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u662f\u82b1\u4e86\u4e09\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u62ff\u5230\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u7684\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u535a\u58eb\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e4b\u540e\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\uff08Harvard\uff09\u548c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u4efb\u6559\u7684\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u867d\u7136\u5b66\u672f\u6c34\u5e73\u4e00\u6d41\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ecd\u7136\u4e00\u76f4\u5bf9\u300c\u5982\u4f55\u641e\u94b1\u300d\u5145\u6ee1\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u5728\u516d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u671f\u95f4\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b89\u5168\u5c40\uff08NSA\uff09\u4e3a\u4e86\u51b7\u6218\u800c\u8bbe\u7acb\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Institute_for_Defense_Analyses\">\u56fd\u9632\u5206\u6790\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/a>\uff08Institute for Defense Analyses\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u505a\u6559\u6388\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u63d0\u4f9b\u5bc6\u7801\u7834\u8bd1\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u3002\u5728IDA\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u5206\u6790\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u4e0d\u540c\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u627e\u51fa\u6709\u7528\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4e3a\u897f\u8499\u65af\u540e\u6765\u521b\u7acb\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u300260\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6807\u9898\u4e3a\u300c\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u884c\u4e3a\u300d\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u4fbf\u7684\uff1a\u5728\u8fd9\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u66f4\u4fa7\u91cd\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff08Fundamental Analysis\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790\uff08Technical Analysis\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u5219\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\uff0c\u4fe1\u53f7\u5206\u6790\u3001\u7b97\u6cd5\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u540c\u65f6\u5229\u7528\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6280\u672f\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u8005Leonard Baum\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u63d0\u51fa<a href=\"https:\/\/www.baeldung.com\/cs\/hidden-markov-model\">Hidden Markov Model<\/a>\uff08HMM\uff09\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u540e\u6765\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u65e9\u671f\u5f00\u53d1\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4eba\u7269\uff0cHMM\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6613\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u53d1\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u7406\uff08NLP\uff09\u548c\u751f\u7269\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"693\" height=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hmm.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2620\" style=\"width:404px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hmm.webp 693w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hmm-300x277.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 693px) 100vw, 693px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hidden Markov Model<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bdd\u8bf4\u56de\u6765\u5230\u897f\u8499\u65af\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u867d\u7136\u5148\u8fdb\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc760\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u7684\u6295\u5165\u5230\u5b9e\u8df5\u3002\u540e\u6765\u8d8a\u6218\u5f00\u6253\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5728\u300c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300d\u64b0\u6587\u516c\u5f00\u53cd\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u80f3\u818a\u62e7\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5927\u817f\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u4e5f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u88ab\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5f00\u9664\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u79bb\u5f00\u4e86\u54c8\u4f5b\u548c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u3002\u6070\u5de7\u5f53\u65f6\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u653f\u5e9c\u60f3\u8981\u5927\u529b\u6295\u8d44\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5219\u987a\u7406\u6210\u7ae0\u6765\u5230\u4e86<a href=\"https:\/\/www.math.stonybrook.edu\/institute-mathematical-sciences\">\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u77f3\u6eaa\u5206\u6821<\/a>\uff08Stony Brook University\uff09\u6210\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\u7684\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u6253\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u653f\u6cbb\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u6559\u5b66\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7410\u4e8b\u7edf\u7edf\u90fd\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u53ea\u8981\u505a\u4f60\u4eec\u60f3\u505a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c31\u597d\u3002\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5728\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u5f85\u4e8610\u5e74\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u8fd8\u662f\u9876\u4e0d\u4f4f\u60f3\u641e\u94b1\u7684\u521d\u5fc3\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u5168\u804c\u6295\u5165\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u9886\u57df\u30021978\u5e74\u897f\u8499\u65af\u8ddf\u4ed6\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u5b66\u672f\u4f19\u4f34\u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u5bb6\u53eb\u505aMonemetrics\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ece1978\u52301988\u53c8\u82b1\u4e8610\u5e74\uff0c\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u6ce2\u53c8\u4e00\u6ce2\u7684\u4eba\u4e8b\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u57281988\u5e74\u4ee5\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u540e\u9762\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5c31\u90fd\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"405\" src=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/simons.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2619\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/simons.webp 720w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/simons-300x169.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u897f\u8499\u65af<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6574\u4e2a\u64ad\u5ba2\u82b1\u4e86\u4e09\u5c0f\u65f6\u8bb2\u4e86\u524d\u524d\u540e\u540e\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u540c\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u542c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u539f\u58f0\uff0c\u6211\u8fd9\u91cc\u6311\u4e00\u4e9b\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5206\u4eab\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2aResearch House\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eec<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rentec.com\/Home.action?about=true\">\u7f51\u7ad9\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/a>\uff0c\u516c\u53f8300\u6765\u4e2a\u5458\u5de5\u670990\u591a\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u3002\u897f\u8499\u65af\u81ea\u5df1\u5c31\u62ff\u8fc7\u62d3\u6251\u5b66\u7684\u5965\u65af\u74e6\u5c14\u5fb7\u00b7\u7ef4\u5e03\u4f26\u51e0\u4f55\u5b66\u5956\uff08Oswald Veblen Prize in Geometry\uff09\uff0c\u8ddf<a href=\"https:\/\/www.math.tsinghua.edu.cn\/info\/1131\/1750.htm\">\u9648\u7701\u8eab<\/a>\u5408\u4f5c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u9648-\u897f\u8499\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u300d\u540e\u6765\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u91cf\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e0d\u65ad\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u5173\u952e\u7b97\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e08\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u540e\u6765\u897f\u8499\u65af\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u7684Co-CEO <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Peter_Fitzhugh_Brown\">Peter Brown<\/a> \u548c <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Robert_Mercer\">Robert Mercer<\/a>\u5728\u52a0\u5165\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u4e4b\u524d\u662f\u5728IBM\u5f00\u53d1\u66fe\u7ecf\u6df1\u84dd\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u65e9\u671f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b97\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e08\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Elwyn_Berlekamp\">Elwyn Berlekamp<\/a>\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\u5219\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u4e4b\u7236\u514b\u52b3\u5fb7\u00b7\u9999\u519c\u3002\u800c\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684Peter Brown\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\u5219\u662f\u73b0\u4eca\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Geoffrey_Hinton\">Geoffrey Hinton<\/a>\u3002 \u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6807\u7684\u90fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u7684\u6570\u636e\u70b9\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6253\u9020\u6548\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5904\u7406\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u548c\u80fd\u591f\u5904\u7406\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u636e\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u8d62\u4e0b\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u56de\u5934\u770b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u505a\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\u5176\u5b9e\u90fd\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u91cf\u5316\u4ea4\u6613\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6216\u8005\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9886\u57df\u90fd\u5728\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u533a\u522b\u53ea\u662f\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u5df2\u7ecf\u505a\u4e8640\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/08-Simons-Inline-SuperJumbo-1024x682.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2614\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/08-Simons-Inline-SuperJumbo-1024x682.webp 1024w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/08-Simons-Inline-SuperJumbo-300x200.webp 300w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/08-Simons-Inline-SuperJumbo-768x512.webp 768w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/08-Simons-Inline-SuperJumbo-1536x1023.webp 1536w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/08-Simons-Inline-SuperJumbo.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u897f\u8499\u65af\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u91cc\u6302\u7740\u300c\u9648-\u897f\u8499\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u300d\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u7684\u7167\u7247<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6587\u5316\u3002\u5148\u4ece\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u63a5\u53d7LP\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0cLP\u5168\u90e8\u6765\u81ea\u5185\u90e8\u5458\u5de5\u6216\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u7684 Carry \u9ad8\u8fbe44%\uff0c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u5c31\u95ee\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u65e2\u7136\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5168\u90e8\u90fd\u6765\u81ea\u5185\u90e8\u5458\u5de5\uff0c\u90a3\u8fd9\u4e48\u9ad8\u7684\u300cCarry\u300d\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4ea4\u7ed9\u8c01\uff1f\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u806a\u660e\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u65b0\u5458\u5de5\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u65b0\u5458\u5de5\u52a0\u5165\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u5f85\u4e86\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u90a3\u4e48\u5bcc\u88d5\u3002\u90a3\u901a\u8fc7\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684 Carry\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u6bcf\u5e74\u57fa\u91d1\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u5feb\u901f\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u300c\u65b0\u4eba\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u90a3\u4e9b\u5df2\u7ecf\u79ef\u6512\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u300c\u8001\u4eba\u300d\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u5927\u91cf\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u5185\u90e8\u751a\u81f3\u628a\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684401(k)\u8bbe\u7f6e\u6210\u4e3a\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\u3002\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u7684\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u8fdc\u79bb\u66fc\u54c8\u987f\uff0c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u957f\u5c9b\u53bf\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u9547East Setauket\uff0c\u636e\u8bf4\u6574\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u907f\u4e16\u7684\u6821\u56ed\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u5458\u5de5\u7684\u5e73\u5747 tenure \u662f13\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5458\u5de5\u52a0\u5165\u516c\u53f8\u7b7e\u7684\u7ade\u4e1a\u534f\u8bae\u90fd\u662f\u300c\u7ec8\u8eab\u300d\u7684\u3002\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u53bb\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u642c\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fdc\u79bb\u90fd\u5e02\u7684\u5c0f\u9547\uff0c\u540c\u4e8b\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u662f\u540d\u6821\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u4e0a\u73ed\u4e0b\u73ed\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0f\u9547\u91cc\u89c1\u5230\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u540c\u6837\u7684\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ec8\u8eab\u7ade\u4e1a\u534f\u8bae\u57fa\u672c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e72\u5230\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u804c\u4f4d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u771f\u5f97\u4e0d\u662f\u9002\u5408\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u806a\u660e\u7684\u9876\u7ea7\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"750\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/rentech-campus.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2617\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/rentech-campus.webp 750w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/rentech-campus-300x200.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u8ddf\u5176\u4ed6\u6709\u540d\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u505a\u6bd4\u8f83\uff08Two Sigma, Citadel, etc.\uff09\uff0c\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u7684\u4eba\u5458\u89c4\u6a21\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u57fa\u91d1\u76841\/10\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u5f88\u65e9\u8d77\u5c31\u8ba2\u4e0b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u5c31\u662f\u5168\u516c\u53f8\u4e00\u8d77\u6253\u9020\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u597d\u5904\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5145\u5206\u52a8\u7528\u5168\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u4e00\u8d77\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u6253\u78e8\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u50cf\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u56e2\u961f\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6697\u6697\u5730\u6709\u76f8\u4e92\u8f83\u52b2\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u8fd9\u5f88\u50cf\u7845\u8c37\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5728\u521b\u4e1a\u65e9\u671f\u56e2\u961f\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u7740\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u5458\u5de5\u80fd\u591f\u4e00\u8d77\u9f50\u5fc3\u5f80\u524d\u3002\u968f\u7740\u516c\u53f8\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u589e\u5927\uff0c\u5229\u76ca\u5f88\u96be\u518d\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/social.clawhammer.net\/blog\/posts\/2024-01-19-CultureChange\/\">\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d<\/a>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c0f\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u8005\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u591a\u5e74\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u5f88\u5c0f\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u50cf\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\uff0c\u505a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u4e48\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u591f\u4fdd\u6301\u8fd9\u4e48\u5c0f\u7684\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u771f\u7684\u662f\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\u518d\u804a\u4e00\u4e0b\u5173\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u5427\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5728\u8bfb\u8292\u683c\u7684 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stripe.press\/poor-charlies-almanack\">Poor Charlie&#8217;s Almanack<\/a>\uff0c\u8bfb\u5230\u8fd9\u91cc\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u53ef\u4ee5\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u8ddf\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u54c8\u6492\u97e6\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u5ff5\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u9a70\u3002\u8292\u683c\u5f3a\u8c03\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5c3d\u91cf\u7528\u300c\u5c0f\u5b66\u751f\u300d\u7684\u667a\u6167\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u548c\u957f\u671f\u8d22\u52a1\u6709\u7740\u4f18\u5f02\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u5f53\u9047\u5230\u300c\u597d\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u300d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u5927\u5730\u53bb\u4e0b\u6ce8\u7136\u540e\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u6295\u8d44\u6807\u7684\u3002\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u5219\u662f\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u548c\u6781\u5176\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u627e\u51fa\u90a3\u6bd450%\u591a\u51fa\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9\u7684\u80dc\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u548c\u6760\u6746\u53bb\u6700\u5927\u5316\u83b7\u76ca\u3002\u5f88\u663e\u7136\u8fd9\u91cc\u6ca1\u6709\u8c01\u5bf9\u8c01\u9519\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8292\u683c\u548c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u90fd\u8d70\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u4f20\u5947\u4e4b\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/munger.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2618\" style=\"width:473px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/munger.webp 960w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/munger-300x225.webp 300w, https:\/\/wukan.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/munger-768x576.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u8292\u683c<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u50cf\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u4e00\u751f\uff0c\u7ec8\u7a76\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u5426\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u591f\u8ddf\u81ea\u5df1\u81ea\u6d3d\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u5730\u65b9\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u4f4f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u623f\u5b50\uff0c\u548c\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u4ebaRaise\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u300c\u600e\u6837\u300d\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u8bfb\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u5408\u9002\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8fd9\u4e24\u5468\u542c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u64ad\u5ba2\uff0c\u5370\u8c61\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u8fd8\u662f Acquired \u8fd9\u671f\u82b1\u4e863\u5c0f\u65f6\u804a\u7684\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Renaissance Technology\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65d7\u8230\u57fa\u91d1\uff1a\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Medallion Fund\uff09\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u768434\u5e74\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u662f68%\u6bdb\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002\u5f62\u8c61\u4e00\u70b9\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u5982\u679c1988\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4f60\u5f80\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684S&amp;P 500\u6295\u8d44\u4e861000\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u6309\u71679%\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u6295\u8d4434\u5e74\u7684\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u662f$18,728\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u4e00\u5171\u7ffb\u4e8618\u500d\u3002\u540c\u6837\u662f1988\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u4e70\u4e861000\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u82f9\u679c\u80a1\u7968\uff08APPL\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8fde\u7eed\u6301\u670934\u5e74\uff0c\u603b\u4ef7\u503c\u4f1a\u662f46\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u4e00\u5171\u7ffb\u4e86460\u500d\u3002\u800c\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u540c\u6837\u57281988\u5e74\u4ed6\u4eec\u57fa\u91d1\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u653e\u8fdb\u53bb1000\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fde\u7eed\u6301\u670934\u5e74\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5141\u8bb8\u88ab\u6301\u6709\u8fd9\u4e48\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u8bdd\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4f1a\u662f465\u300c\u4ebf\u300d\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f68%\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u4e4b\u7f8e\u3002\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u6536\u76ca\u6700\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5f00\u8bbe\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u5e74\u662f\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u3002\u5f88\u53ef\u60dc\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u6210\u7acb\u4e4b\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e1a\u7ee9\u592a\u597d\uff0c\u5c31\u5173\u95ed\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff08LP\uff09\u7684\u6e20\u9053\uff0c\u518d\u8fc7\u4e0d\u4e86\u51e0\u5e74\u4e5f\u628a\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u6709\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u5168\u90e8\u9000\u8fd8\uff0c\u4ece\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u91cc\u9762\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u5168\u90e8\u6765\u81ea\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u6216\u8005\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u524d\u5458\u5de5\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u8fd9\u7bc7\u535a\u5ba2\u5c31\u60f3\u8bb2\u4e00\u8bb2\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u897f\u8499\u65af\uff08James Simons\uff09\u7684\u53d1\u5bb6\u6545\u4e8b\u3002 \u897f\u8499\u65af1938\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u5728\u9a6c\u8428\u8bf8\u585e\u5dde\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u7684\u90ca\u533a\uff08Brookline\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u5c0f\u5c31\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5bf9\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u548c\u5929\u8d4b\u3002\u5927\u5b66\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff08MIT\uff09\u4e09\u5e74\u5b8c\u6210\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6765\u5230\u897f\u6d77\u5cb8\u7684\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\uff08Berkeley\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u662f\u82b1\u4e86\u4e09\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u62ff\u5230\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u7684\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u535a\u58eb\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e4b\u540e\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\uff08Harvard\uff09\u548c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u4efb\u6559\u7684\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u867d\u7136\u5b66\u672f\u6c34\u5e73\u4e00\u6d41\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ecd\u7136\u4e00\u76f4\u5bf9\u300c\u5982\u4f55\u641e\u94b1\u300d\u5145\u6ee1\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u5728\u516d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u671f\u95f4\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b89\u5168\u5c40\uff08NSA\uff09\u4e3a\u4e86\u51b7\u6218\u800c\u8bbe\u7acb\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u5206\u6790\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Institute for Defense Analyses\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u505a\u6559\u6388\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u63d0\u4f9b\u5bc6\u7801\u7834\u8bd1\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u3002\u5728IDA\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u5206\u6790\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u4e0d\u540c\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u627e\u51fa\u6709\u7528\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4e3a\u897f\u8499\u65af\u540e\u6765\u521b\u7acb\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u300260\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6807\u9898\u4e3a\u300c\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u884c\u4e3a\u300d\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u4fbf\u7684\uff1a\u5728\u8fd9\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u66f4\u4fa7\u91cd\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff08Fundamental Analysis\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790\uff08Technical Analysis\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u5219\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\uff0c\u4fe1\u53f7\u5206\u6790\u3001\u7b97\u6cd5\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u540c\u65f6\u5229\u7528\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6280\u672f\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u8005Leonard Baum\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u63d0\u51faHidden Markov Model\uff08HMM\uff09\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u540e\u6765\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u65e9\u671f\u5f00\u53d1\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4eba\u7269\uff0cHMM\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6613\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u53d1\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u7406\uff08NLP\uff09\u548c\u751f\u7269\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u3002 \u8bdd\u8bf4\u56de\u6765\u5230\u897f\u8499\u65af\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u867d\u7136\u5148\u8fdb\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc760\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u7684\u6295\u5165\u5230\u5b9e\u8df5\u3002\u540e\u6765\u8d8a\u6218\u5f00\u6253\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5728\u300c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300d\u64b0\u6587\u516c\u5f00\u53cd\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u80f3\u818a\u62e7\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5927\u817f\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u4e5f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u88ab\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5f00\u9664\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u79bb\u5f00\u4e86\u54c8\u4f5b\u548c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u3002\u6070\u5de7\u5f53\u65f6\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u653f\u5e9c\u60f3\u8981\u5927\u529b\u6295\u8d44\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5219\u987a\u7406\u6210\u7ae0\u6765\u5230\u4e86\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u77f3\u6eaa\u5206\u6821\uff08Stony Brook University\uff09\u6210\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\u7684\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u6253\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u653f\u6cbb\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u6559\u5b66\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7410\u4e8b\u7edf\u7edf\u90fd\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u53ea\u8981\u505a\u4f60\u4eec\u60f3\u505a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c31\u597d\u3002\u897f\u8499\u65af\u5728\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u5f85\u4e8610\u5e74\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u8fd8\u662f\u9876\u4e0d\u4f4f\u60f3\u641e\u94b1\u7684\u521d\u5fc3\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u5168\u804c\u6295\u5165\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u9886\u57df\u30021978\u5e74\u897f\u8499\u65af\u8ddf\u4ed6\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u5b66\u672f\u4f19\u4f34\u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u5bb6\u53eb\u505aMonemetrics\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ece1978\u52301988\u53c8\u82b1\u4e8610\u5e74\uff0c\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u6ce2\u53c8\u4e00\u6ce2\u7684\u4eba\u4e8b\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u57281988\u5e74\u4ee5\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u540e\u9762\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5c31\u90fd\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u4e86\u3002 \u6574\u4e2a\u64ad\u5ba2\u82b1\u4e86\u4e09\u5c0f\u65f6\u8bb2\u4e86\u524d\u524d\u540e\u540e\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u540c\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u542c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u539f\u58f0\uff0c\u6211\u8fd9\u91cc\u6311\u4e00\u4e9b\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5206\u4eab\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002 \u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2aResearch House\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7f51\u7ad9\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u516c\u53f8300\u6765\u4e2a\u5458\u5de5\u670990\u591a\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u3002\u897f\u8499\u65af\u81ea\u5df1\u5c31\u62ff\u8fc7\u62d3\u6251\u5b66\u7684\u5965\u65af\u74e6\u5c14\u5fb7\u00b7\u7ef4\u5e03\u4f26\u51e0\u4f55\u5b66\u5956\uff08Oswald Veblen Prize in Geometry\uff09\uff0c\u8ddf\u9648\u7701\u8eab\u5408\u4f5c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u9648-\u897f\u8499\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u300d\u540e\u6765\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u91cf\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e0d\u65ad\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u5173\u952e\u7b97\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e08\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u540e\u6765\u897f\u8499\u65af\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u7684Co-CEO Peter Brown \u548c Robert Mercer\u5728\u52a0\u5165\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u4e4b\u524d\u662f\u5728IBM\u5f00\u53d1\u66fe\u7ecf\u6df1\u84dd\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u65e9\u671f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b97\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e08\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6Elwyn Berlekamp\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\u5219\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u4e4b\u7236\u514b\u52b3\u5fb7\u00b7\u9999\u519c\u3002\u800c\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684Peter Brown\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\u5219\u662f\u73b0\u4eca\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00Geoffrey Hinton\u3002 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Carry\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u6bcf\u5e74\u57fa\u91d1\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u5feb\u901f\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u300c\u65b0\u4eba\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u90a3\u4e9b\u5df2\u7ecf\u79ef\u6512\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u300c\u8001\u4eba\u300d\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u5927\u91cf\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u5185\u90e8\u751a\u81f3\u628a\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684401(k)\u8bbe\u7f6e\u6210\u4e3a\u5927\u5956\u7ae0\u57fa\u91d1\u3002\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u7684\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u8fdc\u79bb\u66fc\u54c8\u987f\uff0c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u957f\u5c9b\u53bf\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u9547East Setauket\uff0c\u636e\u8bf4\u6574\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u907f\u4e16\u7684\u6821\u56ed\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u5458\u5de5\u7684\u5e73\u5747 tenure 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